Skip to main content

Bank of England Report

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Malcolm G. Lindley " <>
Date: 21 May 2010 17:00:35 GMT+01:00
To: "David Clark" <>
Subject: Bank of England Report

Malcolm G. Lindley
The Guild of Professional Estate Agents

Dear David Clark

The Bank of England Report

I would firstly like to thank all those of you who took the time and trouble to provide me with the information and ammunition for my meeting yesterday with the Bank of England – and, as promised, am pleased to provide a summary of the meeting.

The meeting was a discussion on current business conditions and was with Peter Andrews, Mark Menary and Kate Barker of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.  I was representing Estate Agency interests and it is indeed a real privilege to be able to attend these consultations as they do form a real part of the Bank of England research and intelligence into the immediate sentiment of business at ground level.

I was questioned by the team and my report, in summary, was as follows –

"As Managing Director of GPEA Ltd I represent 800 individual independent estate agency offices. 

Since 2007, UK residential property sales levels fell from 1.2million transactions a year to a low of approximately 450,000 but they have now recovered to a run-rate of 650,000-700,000, however, transaction volumes are still approximately 33% off the peak.

Property prices have, on a national basis, recovered well, although this is patchy – in London, for example, prices have been particularly strong whereas part of the North of England, Wales and the Midlands are still recovering.

Prices have been stronger because of the level of supply versus demand, the introduction of Hips certainly tightened up the market and the lower interest rate (for those able to get mortgages) made property prices more achievable.

There are still enormous difficulties in the mortgage market and the supply of mortgage funds and low interest rates will be key factors in sustaining a recovery in the housing market. 

At present there is considerable concern around the uncertainly of Hips, interest rates, direct and indirect taxation, capital gains tax and spending cuts.  We look forward to clarity to remove this uncertainty and hope for a more consistent base upon which to rebuild a sustainable confidence".

Summary of the Bank of England Inflation Report –

"The United Kingdom continued to emerge from recession. World demand picked up further, although the pattern of recovery was uneven. The level of activity, both at home and in most other advanced economies, remained well below pre-crisis levels and heightened concerns about the fiscal position in some countries led to renewed fragility in financial markets.

A pickup in UK GDP growth is likely, underpinned by the considerable monetary stimulus, a projected global recovery and the past depreciation of sterling. But the pace of expansion is likely to be tempered by the need for fiscal consolidation and for further balance sheet repair by financial institutions.

Both the strength of the recovery and the impact of the financial crisis on the supply potential of the economy remain highly uncertain. Even with relatively robust growth, a degree of spare capacity would be likely to persist over the forecast period.

CPI inflation remained well above the 2% target, raised by the restoration of the standard rate of VAT to 17.5%, higher oil prices and the past depreciation of sterling. As these temporary effects on inflation wane, downward pressure from the persistent margin of spare capacity is likely to cause inflation to fall below the target for much of the forecast period. But the pace and extent of that moderation in inflation are highly uncertain.

Under the assumptions that Bank Rate moves in line with market interest rates and the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves remains at £200 billion, inflation is somewhat more likely to be below target than above it for much of the forecast period, although those risks are broadly balanced by the end."

Yours Sincerely,

Malcolm G. Lindley
Managing Director

Telephone: 020 7629 4141 Facsimile: 020 7629 2329 Visit Us Online
The Guild of Professional Estate Agents, 121 Park Lane, London W1K 7AG
G.P.E.A Ltd Reg No: 2819824. Registered Office: 119-121 Park Lane W1K 7AG
Member Login
Learn More About newzapp email marketing This message was sent to by The Guild of Professional Estate Agents using newzapp email marketing. Follow this link to Unsubscribe.


Popular posts from this blog

Interesting Rental Market Research report on the Changing Face of Britain’s Landlords as Young Entrepreneurs enter the Market Analysis from has indicated a significant change in both the age and gender of private landlords in the UK. The traditional face of the archetypal British landlord is changing according to the study which shows there is a new, younger breed of landlord entering the private rental market; which would indicate that when it comes to property, many still think that there’s money to be made. Comparative data of landlord insurance policies sold by in 2006 (versus 2010) shows a marked increase in landlords aged 18-34. Likewise the gender gap is beginning to close as 39% of landlords insured via are female, versus 36% in 2006. Interestingly, when comparing the types of property being insured, there hasn’t been a statistically significant change since 2006 with terraced housing still accounting for the largest


CHRISTMAS 2019   The festive season is not far off and we just wanted to take this opportunity to confirm our opening hours over the Christmas holiday period and also to outline a few procedures: We will close for the holiday period at   Midday on 23rd December . Opening on   27th and 28th December between 9am and 1pm . We will open normally from   2nd January 2020 at 09.00 . Day to day issues which could wait until normal office hours resume on the   2nd January 2020 , should be reported then.   Our contractors may be on call but many of their suppliers close down over the Christmas period so parts can be hard to locate. We will not attend any “lockouts” over the Christmas break but can pass on the details of a good local locksmith if this occurs – the cost of which will, of course, be yours. A small request   – if you have   any   problems with your heating and hot water now or maybe an appliance that is a bit temperamental and you have been meaning to report the

What about afterwards?

It seems hard to believe that this COVID19 situation has been with us for just over 4 weeks. It actually feels like at least 2 months. If you can bear to watch the daily briefings from the government without reaching for a razor blade then you will be hearing that, just maybe, we are reaching the apex of the death rate curve and, just maybe,  there will be a relaxation of movement and a return to economic activity by most of us, subject to social distancing, masks etc. From a property market point of view, I've been decrying the gloom merchants who have been talking about 16% price falls. This is for reasons that beyond economics, people go their own way and predicting human sentiment to situations is not an exact science. I came across this article by a well-respected commentator called Roger Martin-Fagg who seems to see things my way - or I see things his way!  You have the time available so I recommend that if you want a spoonful of positivity then read this post: https: