Sunday, February 28, 2010

House Prices face Double Dip

This was the title of an article in The Independent on 24th  February 2010.
Read it here : http://bit.ly/aqVQoM
My response is below!


House Prices Face Double Dip

If 2009 saw a ‘boomlet’ then it passed me by and probably the rest of East Cambridgeshire too. I would accept that house prices in and around Ely stabilized and generally stopped falling - most likely because of supply not matching demand. This was also a feature of the late 80’s and early 90’s when if people could avoid selling at prices they didn’t like then they did just that!

To get a true impression then we need to stop looking at the UK residential property market as just one countrywide market. It is a series of micro-markets all reacting differently to the overarching conditions of recession, (un)employment, mortgage availability, type of property available and the likely buyers. After all, the likely ‘punter’ for a riverside apartment overlooking the Thames in central London won’t be the same as the buyer for a 1 bedroom flat in central Ely.

Taking the 5 reasons stated in Graham Norwood’s article in the same order:

Demand is weaker than it appears and may drop

‘Mortgage data shows that most of the demand for loans in late 2009 came from buyers looking to beat the stamp duty change and last month - I assume January - we reached an 8.5 year low’.

January has never, ever, been a peak sales month but let’s just examine some other data:

The average price of a 2 bed semi starter home in Ely is currently £140,000 - down from £165,000 in late 2007.

Stamp duty payable in 2007 : £1,650.00
Stamp duty payable in 2009: £Nil
Stamp duty payable in 2010: ££1,350.00
Saving on property price from 2007: £25,000!

The CML say that the number of buyers saving money in 2009 was 132,500. Not particularly startling figures over the whole of the UK and in a lot of areas outside of London a good number were not first time buyers.

The stamp duty holiday has had really limited impact. The fall in house prices has probably achieved more.  Statistics from Rightmove and Google Analytics data from our own website shows activity up about 120% in January. This did not translate into viewings, offers and sales until the last week of the month. Cause? The weather! Most of the country was hampered by the worst weather for decades and if not actually prevented from getting about then large numbers of people chose not to venture out. In 21st century UK is this really valid? Actually I think so.

The first time buyer is still one of the rarest inhabitants of the property market. Throughout 2009 lenders have - in the main - insisted on a 20% deposit. Even at Ely’s comparatively lowly prices it means they need £27,000 as deposit on a £135,000 property. Faced with this is £1,350 in stamp duty going to be that much of a stumbling block? If you can manage the deposit then I don’t think the tax will be an issue. We are starting to hear of some lenders prepared to lend 90% loan to value (Cambridge Building Society). Given all this 2010 may be ‘more of the same’ but I can’t see demand being weaker.

The Election - Whatever shade of government we end up with none of them will do for the property market what the scrappage scheme did for the motor industry! Most of that money got exported to foreign manufacturers too?

Most Recent Price Surges Are In Wealthy Areas

I won’t take issue with this statement as it’s simple economics. Contrary to popular belief estate agents are not interested in rising prices to help lift their fees. We all want to see the volume of sales increase. Whatever house prices are they are always relative for everyone buying and selling at the same time in the same area.

The Buy to Let Sector Has Not Escaped the Slump Unscathed

Well would or should it? We’ve seen less buyers in this sector than 2 years ago but the majority we have seen have not been looking to take high loan to value mortgages but paying cash. £130,000 in the bank or building society earning less than 1% or in a property showing 3-5% yield with the possibility of capital growth in the longer term is not a difficult decision. It is a time for the professional landlord, in it for the long term.

The Post-Election Landscape May Weaken the Housing Market

May be so but how much more damage can a ‘new’ government do to the property market? Construction and property drive so much employment and demand for goods and services etc. Will the government of the day want to see it any further curtailed? Savills (an agent that deals with the upper end of the market) confirm that in the north of England 24% of the market may be affected by public sector redundancies. The public sector has expanded enormously over the last 10 years. Will it be only the high paid ‘consultants’ that figure in Savills’ statistics?

Estate Agents Are No Longer the Only Market Barometer

So what? What has other ‘players’ being a ‘barometer’ got to do with predicting further house price falls and a collapsing market?

Estate agents have never had a monopoly on sales. That most open of free market economies the USA has had an active For Sale By Owner market for years. Their property market embraced the internet a while before our own but the US Realtor still makes more deals than the private sellers and, incidentally, at about a 6% average fee.

I think most agents would say to any potential vendor intent on going it alone “Good luck and we wish you all the best”. They would also be thinking that the seller will be relying on luck to get the deal as they won’t be able to apply the required amount of effort, commitment and skills to get the transaction to a conclusion. Dealing direct with your buyer is not easy for most people and buyers are always doubtful of a private sellers motivation to move.

Sarah Beeny’s 6000 hopefuls are just that - hopeful! It looks to me that the site earns money from it’s partners, may be, paying commission?

Sarah says on her home page: “Tepilo is an alternative way to buy, sell or let your property and it's free. You maintain 100% control and pay 0% commission! Search across the UK and get advice from me along the way.”

And you also do 100% of the work - from ordering your hip, taking your photos & uploading them, conducting the viewings, negotiating the deal - after chasing the buyer?, instructing the solicitors, following and chasing the process - it goes on.

The other matter I finally wanted to visit was Sarah’s comment on agent’s commission. She mentions £10,000 fees for a £350,000 sale. I assume that £10k is inclusive of HMR&C’s 17.5% slice. That would mean the agent’s fee was 2.5%!!  This is the type of fee only enjoyed in some multi-agency instructions (rare) and by some corporate agents who I am amazed manage to convince a seller to accept such a level. Our, and I believe the majority of my competitors, fee average is something between 1 and 1.25% which would make the fee on £350,000 at best around £4,375.00 before VAT.

The OFT seem to have got caught up in this same misunderstanding over agent’s fees as they are virtually applauding Tesco’s return as an ‘agent’. Now there is an organization able to shrug off bad press - maybe they are suited to the role after all?.

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Call to Arms - From the Guild of Professional Estate Agents

I received this in an e-mail newsletter from the Guild and felt I simply had to re-publish it here...

A Call To Arms....
We know that the UK estate agency market is the most competitive in Western Europe, with the fees levied being only a fraction of those applicable in most developed countries (even when compared to the supposed paragon of the free market, the USA). We also exemplify the specialist skills involved in successfully selling a property, and help mitigate the significant risks involved to the buyer and vendor from acting without professional advice and guidance. Finally, if the rate of consumer dissatisfaction has fallen by half to 12% since the last report, then the service is clearly rapidly improving of its own accord (given the current absence of licensing and mandatory qualifications).

The market statistics also speak volumes. Too many estate agents chasing too few transactions has meant that only a small minority are making healthy profits. With over 2,000 offices closing their doors in the last two years (approx 15% of the total), this is far from the claimed distorted market where cartels and collusion is rife. Actually, it is remarkable that there has not been more 'tacit agreement' at a local level to protect fee levels (although this of course would be criminal).

The NAEA and the RICS have voiced their disappointment and concern regarding the report's findings, but this is surely once again closing the door after the horse has bolted. How can we as a group be so misunderstood?

The answer lies in our fragmentation - too many minority organisations representing particular factions of the market, each of whom can have unique, vested interests. It is perhaps inevitable that with no-one speaking for more than a minority of the industry, we are not invited to 'the top table', and our opinions are too often dismissed as no more than propaganda.

So, we need to find a body that can speak for us all, with common sense and confidence, and secure influence in exalted circles. The current bodies have fallen short (HIPs, anti-money laundering) and we can no longer trust to fate or the whims of political electioneering.

As importantly, what if anything will the public make of this? We are already the classic 'mother in law' joke, not helped by real-life documentaries that stay long in the memory. But we created this legacy, and it will need consistent and positive messages from everyone involved to change it.

Yet if you explain to a vendor just how hard an estate agent works, the long unsocial hours, the sometimes intractable problems we have to solve, the extensive advice and expertise, the personal investment made by the agent in marketing their property (average £700), all with only a 50% chance of any financial reward, they do understand our position. Maybe a more informed consumer explains the higher levels of satisfaction?

So the common theme is better communication - upwards to the regulatory authorities, sideways to the various organisations that represent us, and downwards to the consumer. Vested interest and a failure to seize the high ground is an indictment of our industry, and a particularly damning one for a business that spends the majority of its time in conversations.

What in particular are we going to do about this misrepresentation of our industry?
- The Guild is formally writing next week to the OFT, NAEA, and RICS expressing our consternation with the report's findings
- We encourage you to write directly to the OFT yourselves in a similar vein
- The Guild will also be inviting the OFT to Park Lane for a discussion and exploration of the factual basis of the report
- We will shortly send you an open letter that you can place in local newspapers and in other media explaining to the public the advantages of using a professional, independent estate agent

It is time to take visible and decisive action to defend an industry which consistently delivers an important and responsible service to society, and excellent value to the public.

Kind regards,

Marcus Whewell

Monday, February 22, 2010

More Houses Please!!

What a Monday! We have fantastic levels of interest in 5 bedroom, 2 en suite detached homes in Ely at around £330,000. 3 ready, willing and able buyers after the same house is wasteful so if you have something like this and are thinking of moving please let me know.

We have more than one buyer for 3 bed terraced or semi houses in Witchford and Stretham up to £170,000.

Free valuations and realistic commission levels  - call 665020.

Monday, February 15, 2010

Vacancy for Property Negotiator / Estate Agent

Appearing in this week's local papers:



PROPERTY SALES NEGOTIATOR / ESTATE AGENT


David Clark & Company are an established independent
estate agency in Ely, Cambridgeshire and are now
looking to recruit a sales negotiator/ estate agent to
assist in driving the business forward in 2010.
Ideally you will have some experience in a property
related industry covering sales and assessing property
for sale and consideration will be given to individuals
looking to take the ‘next step’ in their career. You will be
computer literate and with very good communication
skills as we have a reputation to maintain as Ely's
'friendly and approachable' estate agent.


Remuneration will be by basic salary and commission.
This is a full-time position and involves working
Saturdays etc.


If you would like to discuss this opportunity call David
Clark on 01353 665020 or e-mail your CV to
recruitment@clarkhomes.co.uk

Sunday, February 14, 2010

First Post of 2010

As a preamble to my first property related piece of 2010 I wish Ginette and Christine at 'Yarn on the Square' good luck and best wishes as they are now trading from my old premises at 22 Market Place, Ely. Check them out at www.yarn-on-the-square.co.uk or better still pay them a visit for all your wool, needles, crochet hooks, stitch markers, knitting kits and workshops to learn new skills.

I have held onto my thoughts until January was over and we've reached the mid point of February.

January was, in my opinion, a worrying month. Most buying activity seemed to stall until thelast few days of the month. I have deliberately waited until now to make that comment as I would have been labelled 'negative'!

Why did it happen?


  • Stamp Duty threshold reversed to £125,000 from £175,000
  • VAT back to 17.5% from 15%
  • The weather!
I believe the major factor was the weather. Rightmove and our own website produced activity statistics that were more than 100% up over the month. The vast majority of viewings were 'virtual' rather than real until the snow receded and the buyers came out. This let us finish the month with a flourish and early February has been active also with more people arranging market appraisals on their home.

Just a little advice for those getting appraisals. Make sure that the agent(s) giving you advice has done some research into the local market and is prepared to leave the data with you. Pricing figures that are based on facts are always a lot more reliable than those based on wishful thinking. Telling you exactly what you want to hear may be pleasing initially but can mean a prolonged period 'on the market' and result in a lower achieved price in the long run or disappointment after losing the home you wanted to buy.

We always need more homes to sell - call us on Ely 665020 to start your 2010 home move.