Skip to main content

2012: What lays ahead for homes and property?

I’m writing this on 26th December which some might say is a bad time for predictions as the stomach is still churning and digesting yesterday’s Turkey dinner and copious mounts of alcoholic beverages. On the other hand it may focus my mind on whether the next 12 months are going to give any of us that ‘full’ feeling.

The danger with property market predictions is that they are generalisations.  When the Halifax or Nationwide make their comments they are talking about the UK as a whole. When I make a prediction I’m talking about our particular little area of the country - incidentally East Cambridgeshire made it to No.4 in the ten best places to live in the UK (according to Simon Ward of  using Halifax Quality of Life survey data, and who am I to doubt him!)

The London market is buoyant with foreign investors buying and some reports will say that prices moved up even in the closing months of 2011.  The north of the country has over the years lost many traditional industries and now the government cutbacks are going to hit those areas again where devolved departments have been relocated. So, the north is down, London is up and we, in the East of the country where we are not as reliant on Public Sector employment, are in a sort of Goldilocks kind of way ‘not too bad’.

The recent Eurozone bust up could cause us some property market grief because of its implications for our mortgage lenders borrowing funds to lend to us. The EU problem is not resolved yet so it is impossible for me to tell where this is all going to lead.

So, where are we headed? My gut-feel is that 2012 will be a very similar year for Ely and district as 2011. Sales levels will be reasonably good at realistic asking prices with over-priced, poorly located and badly presented properties losing out. But these factors have always been an issue, even in more robust times. It’s just even more important to balance and deal with them now.

The lack of reasonable loan-to-value mortgage funding (90-95%) will continue to hold back the volume of first time buyers and push many of them into renting. In a perverse way this is good news for buy-to-let investors and is one area of the market that I can see continuing to grow.

The volume of houses for sale will continue to be an issue and generally helps hold up prices. The table below shows data for July - September 2011 from the BBC:

The price fall for the year appears to be -4.9% . This should make our area an even more affordable place to live and coupled with all the excellent factors detailed in the Halifax survey who wouldn’t want to live around here?

Enough of predictions - let’s start the year as positively as possible, deal with whatever it throws at us as skillfully and effectively as possible and do what we do best - carry on!



Popular posts from this blog

Interesting Rental Market Research report on the Changing Face of Britain’s Landlords as Young Entrepreneurs enter the Market Analysis from has indicated a significant change in both the age and gender of private landlords in the UK. The traditional face of the archetypal British landlord is changing according to the study which shows there is a new, younger breed of landlord entering the private rental market; which would indicate that when it comes to property, many still think that there’s money to be made. Comparative data of landlord insurance policies sold by in 2006 (versus 2010) shows a marked increase in landlords aged 18-34. Likewise the gender gap is beginning to close as 39% of landlords insured via are female, versus 36% in 2006. Interestingly, when comparing the types of property being insured, there hasn’t been a statistically significant change since 2006 with terraced housing still accounting for the largest


CHRISTMAS 2019   The festive season is not far off and we just wanted to take this opportunity to confirm our opening hours over the Christmas holiday period and also to outline a few procedures: We will close for the holiday period at   Midday on 23rd December . Opening on   27th and 28th December between 9am and 1pm . We will open normally from   2nd January 2020 at 09.00 . Day to day issues which could wait until normal office hours resume on the   2nd January 2020 , should be reported then.   Our contractors may be on call but many of their suppliers close down over the Christmas period so parts can be hard to locate. We will not attend any “lockouts” over the Christmas break but can pass on the details of a good local locksmith if this occurs – the cost of which will, of course, be yours. A small request   – if you have   any   problems with your heating and hot water now or maybe an appliance that is a bit temperamental and you have been meaning to report the

What about afterwards?

It seems hard to believe that this COVID19 situation has been with us for just over 4 weeks. It actually feels like at least 2 months. If you can bear to watch the daily briefings from the government without reaching for a razor blade then you will be hearing that, just maybe, we are reaching the apex of the death rate curve and, just maybe,  there will be a relaxation of movement and a return to economic activity by most of us, subject to social distancing, masks etc. From a property market point of view, I've been decrying the gloom merchants who have been talking about 16% price falls. This is for reasons that beyond economics, people go their own way and predicting human sentiment to situations is not an exact science. I came across this article by a well-respected commentator called Roger Martin-Fagg who seems to see things my way - or I see things his way!  You have the time available so I recommend that if you want a spoonful of positivity then read this post: https: